I don't think this Question is particularly sexy, but I found it interesting. Granted, it doesn't feel like there's much at stake. If I got it wrong, I don't think I missed out or sabotaged my draft. However, I do think it highlights some gaps in my understanding.
I was so happy to have gotten to first-pick Lich, providing some direction and the security of a good hero early. Then this pack came along and not only was I disappointed, I found myself struggling to come up with a pick based on a justification I had any confidence in. I was about to just grab two and move on, but I forced myself to think about what I was having trouble with.
So one of the things I realised is that with fifty drafts under my belt I still don't have any internal roadmap for how a draft goes. You know, like, "Early on you're going to want to be taking cards like these. At the end of pack two you want to be in this kind of a situation," that sort of thing. I just take cards that I think are powerful with a preference towards colours I have heroes in. So when I get a pack with nothing really jumping out at me and I try to find a good pick by asking myself what will be the most helpful for my next twenty picks, the only answer I get is a big shrug.
I know that not every pick is going to define your deck going forward. Some picks are speculative. Some picks are insurance against running short on playables. Sometimes the pack is just four copies of The Tyler Estate, and you're thrilled because not only do you get two now, you still have a shot at two more last pick. But at least theoretically every pick is an opportunity to put yourself into a better or worse position probabilistically to win some games. I just felt like I had no footing to make those evaluations.
Me: "Assuming you're taking Slay, which of the following two has more marginal utility, Untested Grunt or a speculative The Omexe Arena?"
Also Me: "Aha, that's a trick question! Those aren't even the same card type!"
If my reaction to this Question is a Venn diagram with "Draft Planning" on one side, the middle is that there are a number of cards that I don't have a firm idea of how good they are. The Omexe Arena is one of those. I don't have a good sense of how much it has affected the games in which it was played against me. So since it's a question mark I tend not to play it, which means I don't have a lot of experience with it, which leaves me without data on how good it is. Cards like Vhoul Martyr and Defend the Weak, I know they're not great, but I've used them to good effect when they've snuck into my decks as last playables.
The other side of the diagram is "The Item Deck." I have no confidence in my ability to build it correctly. I don't have a good sense of how valuable the expensive items are (again because I play them so seldom). I know they're good when they're in play. Compounding this is that I think I don't think I know how to play Payday very well. When I watch someone playing and they're in a situation where they have a turn with a black hero where they wouldn't otherwise use the mana, I am often surprised their decision to Payday or not to Payday.
In the end I grabbed hold of the idea of "Slay and Something" as the pick and started to eliminate contenders.
First, no green cards. Playing Stars Align always strikes me as way too ambitious. Vhoul Martyr and Defend the Weak are marginal cards that it seems like you can always find an extra of.
Second, not Cunning Plan. I like having a Cunning plan in decks where I'm flopping a blue hero because I find bad hero lineups frustrating, but if I really want one I'll probably be able to get one.
Third, not The Omexe Arena. I know if I take this and wind up playing red I'll be looking for reasons to cut it.
So it's one of Untested Grunt, Shield of Basilius, and Vesture of the Tyrant. I hate Untested Grunt. Mine are coded so that when I play them on turn one, a creep is assigned to the space in front of it for next turn. My opponents seem to have a better version with some kind of repellent and a bias towards good arrows. Vesture is expensive but it's pick two and I'm in the gold-generation colour. Shield of Basilius I probably like more than I should, and again I live in mortal terror of having my buys roadblocked by an expensive item.
My final selection was:
I reminded myself that I couldn't learn without trying things, and bit the bullet.
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