I know, two packs in and already three Cursed Satyrs, what luxury!
I felt really good about my position this far into the draft. I have two heroes I'm happy to play and cards to support both. I actually have more black cards I'm happy to play than blue, including Relentless Pursuit which I think is very powerful.
I paused on this pick because I thought it would be best informed by where I wanted my deck to go. That realization was quickly followed by another, which was that I didn't have a good idea where that was.
So the easy part of this pick was the Conflagration. I'm already happy to play blue, and it is a game-changing effect. Along with the Rookery and the Dimensional Portal that gives me three blue cards, so I'd have nearly three packs to get seven more if I wanted to play two blue heroes. Seems perfectly reasonable. I also already have five green cards I want to play, and in a pinch I don't mind playing an Avernus's Blessing. So that'd be nine more green cards for three green heroes. Playing two-colour seems possible. Does that mean I should take Zeus here?
The problem with that is I'm still gun-shy about playing blue. I feel like I don't have a good handle on how to manage the game with fragile heroes. I'm also irrationally nervous about having both Thundergod's Wrath and Mystic Flare in my deck and getting my hand clogged up. Thirdly, I'd rather play three-colour and make it more likely I'll be playing more quality cards and less filler.
So if I'm playing three-colour, what do I want my deck to look like? I think I want two green heroes, two black heroes, and one blue hero. With the cards I already have that seems easy to accomplish. It also gives me a bit of safety to speculate for good heroes, since if I miss on a pack I don't mind playing a Debbi.
I like all of Keenfolk Turret, Rumusque Blessing, and Satyr Duelist. I love cross-lane effects, and I think Rumusque is very powerful, but I do already have one. I've cooled a bit on Keenfolk Turret but it is still a strong effect that complicates a lane. Duelist would land in an already-busy four slot, and I don't have Enchantress or Treant to make his value go up.
With all that in mind I selected...
I can't help but feel like Zeus is a better pick in the abstract, but I certainly felt better selecting these two.
I took Thunderhide Pack and Phantom Assassin first, leaving a Dimensional Portal behind. I'm still having trouble with blue in general so I'm reluctant to play it. I also think that I might have trouble comparing Thunderhide Pack and Dimensional Portal because when Thunderhide Pack wins you the game, you can really tell. I bet a lot of turn-two Dimensional Portals skew the whole course of their games, but it's hard for me to see all that by the time I get to the late game.
The rest of the pack went great. I got a bunch of cards I really like, including the backbreaking The Oath. I think that card (and my early depth of black cards) means that I want to play multiple black heroes. Which cards do I want?
Complicating this whole thing is the fact that with a dozen draft appearances Viper has a win rate for me well above my overall rate. I like him both on the Flop and on the Turn to chase a favourable matchup. His card is bad (Ziggyny would say horrible) but at least sometimes does something? Anyways here again is me wondering how early to take a hero. The cost of choosing to pass and gamble for better isn't too high. If I miss out entirely I won't be upset to run Debbi.
I think Soul of Spring is a very powerful card. If I'm taking any green cards, I want to take that. If I'm giving myself Thunderhide Pack and Soul of Spring, should I then take Viper to ensure I get a "good" green hero? Do I want to commit more to green? If I were banned from taking green cards, I would happily take Hip Fire and Dimensional Portal. I don't love Hip Fire, but I think it's playable and I want to be long on black.
In the end I chose...
I decided to have faith in my results and go with Viper. I think if there had been another bananas green card, like Mists of Avernus, I would have taken that and Soul of Spring.
Alright well... this doesn't seem very good at all.
So after a pack one where I saw no good heroes I took Treant first in pack two. Early in pack three I was about even between green and black cards and took a Viper third/fourth. The rest of the draft skewed towards black cards and I saw no heroes I wanted to play. In pack five I could have taken Beastmaster fifth/sixth but I had no red cards I wanted to play.
I believe I got the Horn of the Alpha and Apotheosis Blade without giving anything up. I was hoping for a Payday or two but no luck. So for gold generation I have just the two Iron Fog Goldmines. I guess maybe the Debbis will accelerate things since they trade often? So what do I put in my item deck?
I have a number of biases about items. I think +HP items are very powerful and will often play five of them with at least three cheap ones. I think Leather Armor is unplayable and Chainmail doesn't do enough for 7 gold. I am afraid of getting roadblocked by expensive items that only show up when I can't afford them. In general, though, for most of the items I just don't know how good they are. For example, even though I've played Keenfolk Musket a number of times to slightly positive effect, I couldn't say when it warrants a place in my deck.
Here, with three Debbi's I'm starved for hitpoints. Luckily I have two Stonehall Cloaks, which I love. I've been playing Stonehall Plate more lately. I feel like it's not prohibitively expensive and though it isn't often a big difference maker the turn you play it, you can generally see which lanes are likely to be contested so you can start buffing a hero that will see some combat and benefit from it. I love Shield of Aquila, which I think is a powerful effect for its cost. I feel like there are lot of late games where we've traded two lanes and our heroes are converging on the last battleground and wind up shoulder-to-shoulder.
I don't think I can afford Apotheosis Blade or Horn of the Alpha. I've played Wingfall Hammer once off of the Secret Shop and it seemed underwhelming. Do I want Cloak of Carnage or Fur-Lined Mantle? I feel like I really want the security of hitpoints early, so I'm just going to play three basic Cloaks. I've been trying out Broadsword more and I think the results have been positive, so I'll play that. Lastly I'll just throw in a Short Sword. I don't like Blade of the Vigil much. I play it with Ursa, but maybe I need to start playing it with heroes that keep creeps around them like Treant and Enchantress to speed up dominating a lane?
Am I underestimating my buying power? Will I ever get over my fear of expensive items?
I don't think this Question is particularly sexy, but I found it interesting. Granted, it doesn't feel like there's much at stake. If I got it wrong, I don't think I missed out or sabotaged my draft. However, I do think it highlights some gaps in my understanding.
I was so happy to have gotten to first-pick Lich, providing some direction and the security of a good hero early. Then this pack came along and not only was I disappointed, I found myself struggling to come up with a pick based on a justification I had any confidence in. I was about to just grab two and move on, but I forced myself to think about what I was having trouble with.
So one of the things I realised is that with fifty drafts under my belt I still don't have any internal roadmap for how a draft goes. You know, like, "Early on you're going to want to be taking cards like these. At the end of pack two you want to be in this kind of a situation," that sort of thing. I just take cards that I think are powerful with a preference towards colours I have heroes in. So when I get a pack with nothing really jumping out at me and I try to find a good pick by asking myself what will be the most helpful for my next twenty picks, the only answer I get is a big shrug.
I know that not every pick is going to define your deck going forward. Some picks are speculative. Some picks are insurance against running short on playables. Sometimes the pack is just four copies of The Tyler Estate, and you're thrilled because not only do you get two now, you still have a shot at two more last pick. But at least theoretically every pick is an opportunity to put yourself into a better or worse position probabilistically to win some games. I just felt like I had no footing to make those evaluations.
Me: "Assuming you're taking Slay, which of the following two has more marginal utility, Untested Grunt or a speculative The Omexe Arena?"
Also Me: "Aha, that's a trick question! Those aren't even the same card type!"
If my reaction to this Question is a Venn diagram with "Draft Planning" on one side, the middle is that there are a number of cards that I don't have a firm idea of how good they are. The Omexe Arena is one of those. I don't have a good sense of how much it has affected the games in which it was played against me. So since it's a question mark I tend not to play it, which means I don't have a lot of experience with it, which leaves me without data on how good it is. Cards like Vhoul Martyr and Defend the Weak, I know they're not great, but I've used them to good effect when they've snuck into my decks as last playables.
The other side of the diagram is "The Item Deck." I have no confidence in my ability to build it correctly. I don't have a good sense of how valuable the expensive items are (again because I play them so seldom). I know they're good when they're in play. Compounding this is that I think I don't think I know how to play Payday very well. When I watch someone playing and they're in a situation where they have a turn with a black hero where they wouldn't otherwise use the mana, I am often surprised their decision to Payday or not to Payday.
In the end I grabbed hold of the idea of "Slay and Something" as the pick and started to eliminate contenders.
First, no green cards. Playing Stars Align always strikes me as way too ambitious. Vhoul Martyr and Defend the Weak are marginal cards that it seems like you can always find an extra of.
Second, not Cunning Plan. I like having a Cunning plan in decks where I'm flopping a blue hero because I find bad hero lineups frustrating, but if I really want one I'll probably be able to get one.
Third, not The Omexe Arena. I know if I take this and wind up playing red I'll be looking for reasons to cut it.
So it's one of Untested Grunt, Shield of Basilius, and Vesture of the Tyrant. I hate Untested Grunt. Mine are coded so that when I play them on turn one, a creep is assigned to the space in front of it for next turn. My opponents seem to have a better version with some kind of repellent and a bias towards good arrows. Vesture is expensive but it's pick two and I'm in the gold-generation colour. Shield of Basilius I probably like more than I should, and again I live in mortal terror of having my buys roadblocked by an expensive item.
My final selection was:
I reminded myself that I couldn't learn without trying things, and bit the bullet.
I think this is an appropriate first question because it exposes the shallowness of my understanding of the game. I feel like I have something of a grip on the relative powers of cards. I'm less certain but still comfortable when it comes to the changes in card values relative to an established deck. Stepping beyond that into the greater dynamics of a draft I am directionless. When I compare this to the way I think about games that I have some proficiency in, I seem to be missing a lot of mental shortcuts. Hopefully they will come with time and reflection.
"Study and practice, same as anything else."
So heading into Pack 3 where am I? I have a Mazzie I don't particularly want to play, alongside a Burning Oil and an Enough Magic. I'm playing blue for sure. I have a Prellex, a Dimensional Portal, a Friendly Fire, and a Remote Detonation. In black I have a Disciple of Nevermore which I like a lot, and a Sister of the Veil which I don't mind. In green I have a Thunderhide pack which I like a lot, and a Revtel Convoy that I find hard to evaluate but always play.
I'm probably going to play three colours. I want to play Prellex on the Turn. If I play Mazzie I will most likely play it on the Flop. Not playing red means I have to take a basic hero.
I believe I want two of the following four cards.
The first thing I thought when I saw this pack was "Well there's a Blink Dagger so I take that and something else," but the more I looked at it the more confused I made myself. I could think about what each card could do for me, but couldn't balance them against each other. It made me think about the varying amount of influence a single card has on your deck (Hero, then Item, then Spell/Creep) and the opportunity cost of taking a hero. Here are the knots I tied myself into.
ENCHANTRESS - She's a great hero. My win rate with her at the time of this writing is around 62%, which is in line with my overall rate. Her spell overlaps with Prellex's in the five slot, I don't know how much that matters. The thing is, and I can't stress this enough, the next pack might have a boat in it. Are my green cards good enough that I should slam this? How much value is there in putting off the decision to play green in hopes for a better hero, or for direction from the rest of the pack, with the risk of getting stuck with (potentially a second) basic hero?
DIMENSIONAL PORTAL - One of the premier cards in the only colour I'm certain I'm playing. This would give me four blue cards, playing five per hero of that colour on average. Will Prellex be my only blue hero, making this a less urgent pickup? Do I want to try for a second blue hero since this would be the colour I'm longest on for playables? Does that complicate my hero deployment?
IRON FOG GOLD MINE - I have a sneaking suspicion that a significant subset of games where I think "Wow, that one really got away from me and I don't know why" are ones that involve me fighting uphill against an early Gold Mine. I may be overrating it. It seems like a powerful effect that remains relevant if drawn late. If I take this am I committed to black? How bad does my deck look if I wind up having to splash a single Debbi?
BLINK DAGGER - This item more than any other elicits my most sincere and colourful cursing. Horn of the Alpha, Helm of the Dominator, Vesture of the Tyrant, these all earn some salty language, but the Dagger brings out the worst in me. Solves a lot of problems, undoes a lot of the opponent's plans. This makes my deck under all circumstances if I take it. At 7 it won't lock me out of an item purchase too often, which is something I'm irrationally paranoid of. Thinking about this made me realise how little I understand the item deck in general. Is there a reason not to take this? Are Enchantress and Dimensional Portal so important that it's worth giving up?
In the end I chose:
I felt like that if I was going to end up with a functional deck it would probably have two blue heroes in it and it made sense to flesh it out along those lines. The need for a decent second made it easier to give up on Enchantress.
