I think this is an appropriate first question because it exposes the shallowness of my understanding of the game. I feel like I have something of a grip on the relative powers of cards. I'm less certain but still comfortable when it comes to the changes in card values relative to an established deck. Stepping beyond that into the greater dynamics of a draft I am directionless. When I compare this to the way I think about games that I have some proficiency in, I seem to be missing a lot of mental shortcuts. Hopefully they will come with time and reflection.
"Study and practice, same as anything else."
So heading into Pack 3 where am I? I have a Mazzie I don't particularly want to play, alongside a Burning Oil and an Enough Magic. I'm playing blue for sure. I have a Prellex, a Dimensional Portal, a Friendly Fire, and a Remote Detonation. In black I have a Disciple of Nevermore which I like a lot, and a Sister of the Veil which I don't mind. In green I have a Thunderhide pack which I like a lot, and a Revtel Convoy that I find hard to evaluate but always play.
I'm probably going to play three colours. I want to play Prellex on the Turn. If I play Mazzie I will most likely play it on the Flop. Not playing red means I have to take a basic hero.
I believe I want two of the following four cards.
The first thing I thought when I saw this pack was "Well there's a Blink Dagger so I take that and something else," but the more I looked at it the more confused I made myself. I could think about what each card could do for me, but couldn't balance them against each other. It made me think about the varying amount of influence a single card has on your deck (Hero, then Item, then Spell/Creep) and the opportunity cost of taking a hero. Here are the knots I tied myself into.
ENCHANTRESS - She's a great hero. My win rate with her at the time of this writing is around 62%, which is in line with my overall rate. Her spell overlaps with Prellex's in the five slot, I don't know how much that matters. The thing is, and I can't stress this enough, the next pack might have a boat in it. Are my green cards good enough that I should slam this? How much value is there in putting off the decision to play green in hopes for a better hero, or for direction from the rest of the pack, with the risk of getting stuck with (potentially a second) basic hero?
DIMENSIONAL PORTAL - One of the premier cards in the only colour I'm certain I'm playing. This would give me four blue cards, playing five per hero of that colour on average. Will Prellex be my only blue hero, making this a less urgent pickup? Do I want to try for a second blue hero since this would be the colour I'm longest on for playables? Does that complicate my hero deployment?
IRON FOG GOLD MINE - I have a sneaking suspicion that a significant subset of games where I think "Wow, that one really got away from me and I don't know why" are ones that involve me fighting uphill against an early Gold Mine. I may be overrating it. It seems like a powerful effect that remains relevant if drawn late. If I take this am I committed to black? How bad does my deck look if I wind up having to splash a single Debbi?
BLINK DAGGER - This item more than any other elicits my most sincere and colourful cursing. Horn of the Alpha, Helm of the Dominator, Vesture of the Tyrant, these all earn some salty language, but the Dagger brings out the worst in me. Solves a lot of problems, undoes a lot of the opponent's plans. This makes my deck under all circumstances if I take it. At 7 it won't lock me out of an item purchase too often, which is something I'm irrationally paranoid of. Thinking about this made me realise how little I understand the item deck in general. Is there a reason not to take this? Are Enchantress and Dimensional Portal so important that it's worth giving up?
In the end I chose:
I felt like that if I was going to end up with a functional deck it would probably have two blue heroes in it and it made sense to flesh it out along those lines. The need for a decent second made it easier to give up on Enchantress.
